I wouldn't say either is "predictive" is the sense of using them as a timing indicator. And in RoC we place the main emphasis on VIX as representing global liquidity for risk markets, which I still think is correct. That said, Treasuries are the dominant form of collateral in the shadow banking system, so the more volatile they are the less leverage is taken using them as collateral. At least that is the idea - Michael Howell is a proponent of this and there is an empirical relationship between MOVE and bond futures margins (more vol = less leverage). But there is no relationship between MOVE and repo haircuts. I guess you could think of it like this: low vol in both MOVE & VIX is when you really need to worry about excessive leverage building up
“It got dark” made be burst out laughing
seems like MOVE is more predictive than VIX … do you agree?
I wouldn't say either is "predictive" is the sense of using them as a timing indicator. And in RoC we place the main emphasis on VIX as representing global liquidity for risk markets, which I still think is correct. That said, Treasuries are the dominant form of collateral in the shadow banking system, so the more volatile they are the less leverage is taken using them as collateral. At least that is the idea - Michael Howell is a proponent of this and there is an empirical relationship between MOVE and bond futures margins (more vol = less leverage). But there is no relationship between MOVE and repo haircuts. I guess you could think of it like this: low vol in both MOVE & VIX is when you really need to worry about excessive leverage building up